Transit Cost & Concentration Analysis — HHI, what-if simulator, multi-currency

Transit is among the top three line items on any ISP cost sheet, but most operators run it on spreadsheets refreshed quarterly. RoutePulse pulls the actual P95 from ClickHouse, multiplies by the configured per-provider rate (CHF / USD / EUR), and surfaces the result alongside a Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) concentration score so an operator can immediately see whether one provider is carrying too much of the budget — and the risk. The same engine then runs a what-if simulator that lets you remove a provider, add a new one, change a commit level, or shift traffic to peering, and shows the resulting cost delta and HHI change live, before any commercial conversation begins.

Per-provider cost-per-Mbps is the headline metric: same units across upstream transit (Colt, Cogent, Antenna, Lumen, RETN, UPC) and IXP peering (SwissIX, MIX-IT, MINAP), so the efficiency matrix instantly highlights where peering delivers better economics than transit. Six months of historical P95 + cost data with linear-regression trend lines support seasonality analysis and contract renewal planning. Multi-currency support pulls daily FX rates so any provider invoice can be normalised to the operator’s reporting currency without re-keying. The audit cross-references the WORM compliance chain (see Compliance) so every cost projection used in a procurement decision carries a cryptographically-signed evidence trail.

Per-provider cost-per-Mbps · 8 financial KPIs

Eight KPI cards: total monthly cost, blended cost-per-Mbps, CDR utilisation, burst overage spend, transit-vs-peering split, top provider by spend, top provider by Mbps, and the HHI concentration score itself. Per-provider rates are configured once (Mbps tiered, flat or stepped) in transit-cost-service.ts and applied to live P95 from ClickHouse; no manual reconciliation needed once invoices arrive.

Herfindahl-Hirschman concentration index

HHI is the textbook market-concentration measure: square each provider’s share of spend, sum them, multiply by 10,000. RoutePulse computes HHI live across the active provider mix; a value <1,500 is competitive, 1,500-2,500 moderate concentration, >2,500 high concentration. The dashboard highlights single-provider dependencies with a red banner — the same risk indicator your business-continuity audit will care about under NIS2/DORA.

What-if simulator · provider efficiency matrix

The simulator lets you toggle providers on/off, adjust commit levels, change traffic shares, or shift transit volume to IXP peering — and it recomputes total cost, blended cost-per-Mbps, HHI, and 6-month projected cost in <100 ms. The provider efficiency matrix renders cost-per-Mbps side by side across transit and peering connections, making the case for additional IXP presences (or for renegotiating an underperforming transit) visually obvious without slide-deck assembly.

Key Capabilities

• P95 ISP-grade billing — matches actual carrier invoice methodology (5-min samples, per-direction quantileExact(0.95) in ClickHouse)
• 8 financial KPI cards — total cost, cost-per-Mbps, CDR utilisation, burst overage, transit-vs-peering split, top spend, top Mbps, HHI concentration
• Per-provider cost-per-Mbps — same units across transit (Colt, Cogent, Antenna, Lumen, RETN, UPC) and IXP peering (SwissIX, MIX-IT, MINAP)
• Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) concentration metric — sum-of-squared-shares × 10,000, red banner above 2,500 (high concentration risk)
• What-if simulator — toggle providers, change commits, shift traffic to peering; cost & HHI deltas recomputed <100 ms
• Provider efficiency matrix — side-by-side cost-per-Mbps grid identifies where IXP peering beats transit economically
• 6-month historical P95 + cost — linear-regression trend lines for seasonality and contract-renewal planning
• Multi-currency support — CHF / USD / EUR with daily FX rate refresh; invoices normalised to reporting currency without re-keying
• Tiered, flat, and stepped rate models — per-provider configuration in transit-cost-service.ts, applied automatically
• Transit-vs-peering ratio optimisation — flags candidate flows that could migrate from paid transit to IXP peering, with estimated monthly saving
• Cross-link to Capacity (forward projection) and Compliance (WORM audit chain) — every cost decision carries an evidence trail
• CSV / PDF export — finance-ready monthly statements with per-provider P95 + spend tables

Engineered and operated by the GOLINE SOC & Network Engineering team.

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